Connecticut is winning as they were last year - with a consistent running game and solid defense. In fact, Donald Brown leads the country with 716 rushing yards and already has 10 touchdowns through only four games. People forget that this team tied West Virginia for the Big East title last year and a win on the road here could do a lot towards getting them another share or even and outright shot at the title.
Louisville started awfully slow with a pathetic offensive showing at home against rival Kentucky, losing 27-2 but came back and scored 51 and 38 points in their last two games, the most recent one including a rout of a decent Kansas State team. The defense was one of the worst in the country last year but new defensive coordinator Ron English, from Michigan, at this point looks to have things headed in the right direction.
When Louisville has the ball...
Hunter Cantwell threw for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kansas State last week and hasn't thrown an interception since the Kentucky game. Most of those throws will go to Doug Beaumont or Josh Chichester and their development will be key this season as for years the now departed Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia ate up all the catches. Brock Bolen is the power back and freshman Vic Anderson the shifty, fast one and this has the makings of a good offensive group but with the little experience they have UConn's defense should be able to hold serve.
Thing(s) to watch...
- UConn has picked off 6 passes this year. Cantwell is a fifth year senior and as I mentioned his chemistry with the receivers is ongoing and he has gone pick-less since opening weekend. The Huskies are typically stingy against the run and there will be times where Cantwell will have to look for the deep ball. Also, UConn is 16th in the country in sacks and Louisville has allowed 2 per game.
- Vic Anderson. He jumped off the television screen last week and he's one of the better freshmen in the country.
It's all about Donald Brown against the country's #2 ranked rushing defense. If he can't get it going it may be a long night for the Huskies. But obviously the opposite could happen and the 'Ville defense could look like the 2007 version.
Thing to watch (outside of Brown)...
- Jared Lorenzen is in his second full year starting at quarterback but he has struggled a LOT this year. Despite the defense picking off a lot of passes the Huskies are still 84th in the country in turnover margin and no thanks to Tyler's 1/6 touchdown to interception ratio. Luckily for him 'Ville hasn't shown the propensity to pick off passes so far (only 2).
That was from last year's game and hopefully we don't see a blown call similar to that again. The field position game is more crucial for Connecticut in my opinion because as good as Brown has been they need those short fields to keep his stamina up and get all the points they can with an improving Louisville offense on the other side of the ball that can score from anywhere on the field.
Luckily for UConn Louisville is 111th in the country punting the ball, 117th in kick returns, and 79th in punt returns. Clear edge for UConn here, and watch out for those fair catch signals!
Prediction
I was about to write Louisville off after their terrible performance in the opener and thought Kragthorpe may be on the hot seat already in only his second year, but that KSU game was great for them. These weeknight games seem to always favor the home team (just look at Oregon State!) and I like the Cards to win this one. I could see a scenario where they blow the Huskies out, but Randy Edsall has a fiesty crew and Brown should keep them in it. They have an apparent edge in the special teams categories across the board (although they aren't spectacular at anything, either), but I don't think it will be enough.
Louisville - 27
UConn - 20
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