#9: texas tech red raiders

Context

Very similarly to Tommy Bowden's Clemson program directly above in my rankings, Mike Leach and his Red Raiders have won consistently but have never had a breakout season going in to the head coach's tenth year leading the program.

The difference here is Tech's formula for winning has been well defined and entertaining, keeping Leach's job secure in a Big XII South league that boasts two of the nation's premier programs in Oklahoma and Texas. They pass, pass, pass, score, score, score and at times appear to only hope the opposing offense flubs up.

TTU's best year recently was 2005, where the Raiders achieved a 6-2 record in Big XII play. Unfortunately that only tied them for second in the South with Oklahoma and behind national champion Texas, reflecting the toughness of their schedule year in and year out. I feel the program really would have gained some recognition if they knocked off Alabama in the Cotton Bowl, as it would have been the second year straight they knocked off a top 15 team in a bowl and their first 10 win season under Leach. Didn't happen.

Also like Clemson, the Raiders have never finished higher than in the mid-teens in the final season rankings under their current coaching staff. Both teams appear to have favorable schedules this year, so they could conceivably finish in the top ten, but these are power rankings...

...so again, I'm left to defend another apparent middling program that I have ranked higher than everyone else! This should be Leach's best offense yet in Lubbock, and they retain 8 starters on defense. The last time they returned this much experience on defense, 2005, they allowed a very soild 18.8 points per game (18th in the country) and finished the regular season with only 2 losses. I see similar results this year.

Experts

The NCS poll pegs Tech at #13 with an average ranking of (12.89). Stewart Mandel of CNNSI has Tech at #8, and Athlon ranks them lowest at #18.

My Opinion

Ruffin McNeill replaced Lyle Setencich as defensive coordinator after Oklahoma State racked up 49 points on 366 rushing and 244 passing yards against the Raiders in their conference opener last fall. If you've read any sort of preseason preview magazine, I'm sure you've heard that Texas Tech led the Big XII in total defense over their last 8 games. That's a nice, quotable statistic but lets look deeper...

The Raiders faced Iowa State, Baylor, and Virginia who ranked 102nd, 85th, and 101st respectively in total offense on the season. Of the quality offenses they faced: Missouri put up 41 points on them, Colorado 31, Texas 59 with 283 yards rushing, and Oklahoma scored 27 with a backup QB who threw for over 300 yards. Virginia scored 28 points on the Raiders in the bowl, almost 10 points over their season average. The Raiders got shredded on the ground as 5 of those 8 opponents rushed for over 200 yards.

So yes I'm going out of the way to bash a team I have in the top ten somewhat based on the strength of their apparently improving defense...

...but the Big XII was unquestionably the best passing conference in the country in 2007, and the Raiders managed to only allow 208 yards per game through the air against conference foes, which was by far the best mark in the league. Sure, some of that can be attributed to teams attacking their porous run defense (ranked 10th in the conference), but the Raiders return every significant contributor on the defensive line and the pass rush looked solid in the spring, sacking Raider quarterbacks 9 times. A better than average pass rush would be good for a change.

Also notable is every contributor on that line outside of end Jake Ratliff was no more than a sophomore last year. There are 6 players that had more than 20 tackles last year on that line and they add Miami transfer Chris Perry in at tackle. They won't stop the run like Ohio State or Virginia Tech, but there's nowhere to go but up and it should be a much improved group.

Brian Duncan and Marlon Williams were also youngish last year at linebacker, but they were both top 5 on the team in tackles and return. Unfortunately they recorded zero sacks and 5 tackles for loss between them, and need to be better there.

I mentioned the secondary's strong play and it should be good against this year. Jamar Wall returns at one corner and made honorable mention Big XII team last year as a sophomore. Senior Marcus Bunton looks to take over the other corner spot for the departed Chris Parker, but he has ample experience. Darcel McBath enters his third year starting at free safety, and another senior steps in at stong safety for perhaps the most important departed starter, Joe Garcia (led the team in tackles).

When looking at their defense a consistent theme is youth, as Ratliff will likely be the only senior starter in the front seven. Obviously I was critical of their defense against top notch programs above, but if you watched the Raiders they improved significantly as the year went on and seemed to be a much more confident group than in recent years under new coach McNeill. This is at least their best defense since 2005, and I really believe it could be the best Leach has ever had.

What more can be said about the offense that isn't repeated year after year? Everyone knows who top receiver Michael Crabtree and Graham Harrell are, and that Mike Leach likes throwing as much as Nebraska mid-90s liked running.

Surprisingly, Tech only finished 6th in Big XII play scoring the ball. That isn't likely to continue this year with 10 starters returning and a massive offensive line giving the nation's best passing combination all the time they need to be effective. Seriously, the smallest starting Raider offensive lineman in 6-4 and 303 pounds!

The only players Texas Tech have to replace on the offensive end are receivers Grant Walker and Danny Amendola. They combined for over 1500 yards receiving, but consider Tech threw for over 6000 yards last year and their production won't be hard to replace.

Luckily for them they don't face Missouri or Colorado in the regular season this year, who they scored only 10 and 26 points against respectively last year and got embarassed in both contests.

Again, this should probably be Tech's best offense under Leach.

Schedule

Texas Tech faces four non-conference opponents to open the season, the best of which is Nevada. They may have 100 passing touchdowns by then and they get a bye before Big XII play starts against Kansas State on the road. Of course they face Texas and Oklahoma like every year, but they always play Oklahoma well and like I mentioned, they don't face Colorado and Missouri who could very well be the best two teams in the North and dismantled the Raiders last year.

I like the Raiders to finish 10-2, second in the Big XII South, and get to a solid bowl game.