#1: southern california trojans

Context

It's hard to believe the Trojans haven't been to the national title game since 2005. USC has lost 4 Pac-10 games in the past 2 years, each to different programs (Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA). They were favored by double digits in all but one of those games: against Oregon in Autzen Stadium last season. In fact, that was the first game that USC has been an underdog in since 2003 when they stomped the Auburn Tigers, favored by a field goal, 35-0 in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Last year's home loss against Stanford snapped a home win streak of 35 games.

That's my best attempt at negative spin.

USC has finished no lower than #4 in the two major college football polls in each and every season since 2002 - a run that may remind a few of Florida State's streak of 14 consecutive seasons ranked in the top 5 from 1987-2000. The Trojans have a stranglehold on the Pac-10 title like Florida State did the ACC. The funny thing is, USC's only problem getting back to the national championship game has stemmed from missteps in conference play. They've lost more games to Pac-10 opponents in the last two years than FSU did against the ACC in that entire 14 year span as the Seminoles went an amazing 71-3 against in-conference foes.

USC will try to make its third appearance in the deciding MNC game this fall, and if they can get past Ohio State in week three, look to have a good shot at doing so if they don't continue the habit of stumbling against outmatched Pac-10 foes.

So what separates them from the rest of the elite teams? I think they may have the best defense in the country and an offense that will be among the nation's elite and the best they've had since 2005.

Experts

USC is ranked #3 in the NCS poll with an average ranking of (3.33). David Fox from Rivals is the only poll member to have USC at #1. College Football News has them ranked the lowest at #5.

My Opinion

I really like the back seven of this Trojan defense and it's the main reason I have the Trojans at #1. A big reason that no one has beaten the Trojans by more than 7 points since Notre Dame in 2001 (amazing, by the way) is Pete Carroll's tendency to let the opposing quarterback complete short passes and let his fast and physical linebackers and secondary clean up instead of giving up the big pass play. It's not necessarily a bend-but-not-break scheme, but it's certainly less risk/reward than other top defenses. I say that, but one reason USC has been so dominant recently is they turn other teams over like crazy.

Turnover Margin...

2002: +18
2003: +20
2004: +19
2005: +21
2006: +2
2007: +4

If you look at the last two years, I'm sure it's something Head Coach Pete Carroll is making his defensive guys aware of.

Continuing with the back of the Trojan defense, there is a tremendous amount of experience returning. Not only do they return 5 of 7 starters, but 4 of those started at least 10 games 2 years ago, and players like Josh Pinkard and Kaluka Maiava saw extensive action as far back as 2005. I'm sure some of you can even remember a much leaner Brian Cushing chasing around (unsuccessfully) Vince Young in the '05 championship game.

Point is, these guys are seasoned and know Carroll and defensive coordinator Nick Holt's scheme well. Expect more turnovers this year, and Taylor Mays and Keith Ellison form probably the most physical and imposing safety combination in the country. The combo of Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing at linebacker also easily contends for one of the best twosomes in the land.

In the spring Carroll said the secondary has a chance to be the best they've had at USC, and I agree

Carroll also said: "Other than the nose tackle spot, I feel we are coming into the season with a good savvy group that knows what we are doing and gives us some flexibility."

Pete is referring to the loss of 2007 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year and All-American Sedrick Ellis. But of course, USC is loaded with lauded athletes ready to step into his position. Carroll said junior Averell Spicer had a great chance to win that spot, but he was out for the spring and sophomore Christian Tupou was given a positive review by Carroll, noting that he had the most single impressive day of any defensive lineman all spring.

USC is always very good against the run, and only once since their top 5 streak started have allowed over 91 rushing yards per game. That was in 2005 with a very young defense that had to replace two All-American lineman. They'll have to do the same this year with Lawrence Jackson departing also - but I feel the defensive line will be very good and look for big years out of experienced tackle Fili Moala, who will help people forget about Ellis, and end Everson Griffen, a very promising sophomore on the edge.

USC looks to have the best defense in the country by my estimation, and my only concern is them losing the 19 combined sacks that Ellis and Jackson brought to the table, along with their general dominance.

Not many people are talking about the Trojan offense. I think it mainly has to do with them not having the name brand players they've had in the past few years, but I really like the potential of this group and think it will be the best in LA since 2005's juggernaut group. The Trojans have averaged a mortal 30.5 and 32.6 points per game the past two years, and Steve Sarkisian is now in his second year calling the plays.

John David Booty was a solid college quarterback, but I think Mark Sanchez is the obvious pick to lead the offense this fall and adds a lot with his ability to throw on the run and be more than a stand-still passer. Being mobile in USC's offense isn't that important (if at all), but I think Sanchez is probably more gifted a passer than Booty was anyway. His mobility can only add to what they offer offensively, considering he got rid of the ball quickly in the three games he played extensively in and was only sacked once total in the Notre Dame and Oregon games.

I was impressed with him in the starts he got last year. He threw 2 picks late in the Oregon game to seal the deal for the Ducks, but people don't remember how putrid USC was running the ball in that game (101 yards) and Sanchez made the game closer than it would have been without him as he completed 26 of 42 passes for 2 touchdowns. Somehow people seem to remember wins and losses when it comes to QBs, but attribute them to no other position. His solid performance in that game was overlooked.

Not much to say about the running game that you don't already know if you've watched the Trojans recently: lots of big time recruits competing for limited carries. Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight have proven to be the best two backs, each having over 90 carries last year, but players like CJ Gable, Marc Tyler, Allen Bradford, and Broderick Green are waiting in line. Chauncey Washington departs as the top carry man last year (195), but Johnson, McKnight, and Gable each had higher yards per carry averages.

I also like the depth at the receiver position, but the performance last year was way below USC's standards. Fred Davis was far and away the best pass catcher from the tight end spot, but Patrick Turner, Vidal Hazelton, and David Ausberry haven't quite lived up to the hype. They're all big guys in the 6-3 to 6-5 range and over 200 pounds. Joe McKnight caught the ball out of the backfield some, but I look for players with more speed like Ronald Johnson and Damian Williams to see the ball more. I don't think there is a Dwayne Jarrett, Mike Williams, or Steve Smith in here but there's probably more depth than has been seen here in a while.

The offensive line only returns one 'true' starter but I don't think there's much to be worried about. Sam Baker, Drew Radovich, and Chilo Rachal all started at least 2 full years but the line was banged up most of last year and USC used a real heavy rotation. They were still pretty consistent from game to game and didn't allow a lot of sacks. They'll reload.

One thing that is more important to USC than other teams, especially with almost everyone moving to the spread, are the TE and FB positions. Fullback Stanley Havili and Davis combined for 96 catches last year, and Davis departs. It looks like Anthony McCoy and Rhett Ellison, both with minimal experience, will split duties at the tight end spot.

Watch out for Ronald Johnson and Joe McKnight returning kicks this year.

Prediction

Either 12-0 or 11-1 and an appearance in the national title game.

USC has 5 Pac-10 road games in this year's rotation, but if they can get by Ohio State at home faced Washington State, Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, and UCLA on the road. Losing any of those would be a major upset, and although USC has been susceptible to that recently, I think they're focused this year.