#7: auburn tigers

Context

Tommy Tuberville has gone through assistant coaches Will Muschamp, Al Borges, Gene Chizik, and Bobby Petrino in his tenure to name a few and just keeps winning. Muschamp was a big loss, but Auburn returns a lot of solid players on the defensive side of the ball and new coordinator Paul Rhodes proved to be a very solid defensive coach at Pittsburgh, a post he held every year since 2000 before being lured by Tuberville.

Borges was unlucky enough to be fired and Tony Franklin of Troy takes his offensive coordinator post, a move Auburn sorely needed after putrid offensive attacks plagued them since the departure of Jason Campbell, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams.

Auburn has finished in the top 15 of the AP poll each of the past 4 years and looks primed for their fifth such consecutive season this fall.

Experts

Auburn ranks #11 in the NCS poll with an average of (11.78). Athlon has them highest at #8 and ESPN's Mark Schlabach has them pegged at #16 for the low.

My Opinion

Even Tiger fans wary of a switch to a spread offense, not popular in SEC country before LSU and Florida won national titles with variations of it, should be optimistic that their offensive attack will be at least as good as it has been since 2005. The last two years Auburn averaged only 24 points per game, scored over 30 points only twice in SEC play, and just didn't pass the eye test.

Quarterback Brandon Cox departs as the third leading passer in school history, but that mark can be attributed to longevity in the system more than anything else. Auburn fans got a sneak peek of what the offense will look like this fall, with Tony Franklin installing his offense in literally a few practices before last year's Peach Bowl. True frosh QB Kodi Burns threw for a touchdown (although it was his only completion) along with running for 69 yards and the game winning score in that win over Clemson.

Burns will be challenged by Texas Tech transfer Chris Todd for the starting job and it should be an interesting race. Burns was the offensive MVP of the spring game and Todd played for Tony Franklin in high school. I expect both to see the field this year. Burns doesn't seem too polished a passer, although he threw for 142 yards in the spring game on 21 heaves. He ran for 203 yards last year and actually saw a lot of action in the Mississippi State game with 20 carries.

Auburn only threw for 178 yards a game last year and that was good for 103rd in the country. With the strength again figuring to be the running game, 200 passing yards per game is a reasonable goal and I expect a lot of the passes to be of the short route and screen variety giving a lot more opportunities for run after catch yardage than the west coast system they had been running.

An encouraging thing for the passing game is 16 different players caught balls in the spring. There were only 2 players on the entire team that caught more the 19 balls last year. Mario Fannin played a lot of running back last year as a true freshman, but one of the reasons Tuberville said he switched to the spread is they weren't getting very good wide receiver recruits. I expect Fannin to contribute as a receiver as Auburn is already deep at tailback and he's a very, very talented player.

Rod Smith led the receivers by far with 52 catches and 705 yards, and fellow senior Robert Dunn has some real good potential he's yet to live up to. If the Tigers want to win the SEC West, it's crucial to me that these two are solid options. Motez Billings returns as the second leading receiver, and I expect one or more of sophomores Terrell Zachery, Chris Slaughter, and Tim Hawthorne to step up with a lot more slots to fill on the outside now that the Tigers will be using more multiple wide receiver stes.

I am not very familiar with Franklin's offense as far as how it utilizes the tight end, but Tommy Trott and Gabe McKenzie return with considerable experience there.

Mario Fannin, Brad Lester, and Ben Tate return to form one of the deepest and most dynamic running games in the country. Fannin's versatility and presumed pass catching role should allow Lester and Tate to again see the bulk of the carries, and the two are hard nosed power backs that aren't lacking in the speed department. With the lack of a viable passing game and a young offensive line, they weren't terribly productive on paper in 2007 but the 3 should put up better numbers this year.

All five starting offensive linemen return and they allowed 25 sacks last year, a pretty good number considering the predictability of their offense and Cox not being a running threat. Expect the running numbers to drastically improve and Auburn, much like Georgia above them, has three sophomore returning starters that gained valuable experience last year being thrown into the fire.

I'd be surprised if Auburn wasn't the most improved offense in the SEC, but at the very least I absolutely guarantee they'll be more fun to watch than paint dry (the last two years).

Out of necessity, Auburn's defense was downright nasty the last two years under Will Muschamp and held Florida to their lowest point total in a single game each of the past 2 seasons along with only allowing 3 points to LSU in 2006. They never have that headline all-america caliber player, but their worst mark in points allowed per game in the last 6 years was 17.8 all the way back in 2002. Pretty amazing.

Last year they were the only SEC team in conference play to hold foes under 20 points a game (17.3) and they return 7 starters from that salty group.

It was very much a team effort as 14 players had at least 30 tackles last year and shockingly defensive tackle Josh Thompson (who now departs) led with 67. Eight of those tacklers return and Auburn looks solid from front to back once again.

On paper the defensive tackles look toughest to replace as Thompson and third round draft pick Pat Sims depart, but it appears Sen'Derrick Marks will move over from defensive end and he is a third year starter on the line and plenty big at 288 pounds. Jake Ricks is inexperienced, but looks like the favorite to take over the other tackle spot although I'm sure they'll be some rotation there.

Quentin Groves looks like a big loss on paper at the defensive end position, but he didn't play all that much last year and now-senior Antonio Coleman had a massive season with 8.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Whoever fills in on the other side should be adequate and have chances to make plays with Marks and Coleman sure to gain some double teams.

Auburn literally returns every significant contributor from the linebacker positions and the stereotype that they usually prefer speed over size is there for a reason. Four players have seen significant starting time in their careers and Tray Blackmon has the potential to be a dominant player if he figures some stuff out on and off the field.

The front seven didn't allow a team to rush over 200 yards on them last year and held Arkansas to 67 yards on 25 carries, which was a huge feat considering it was a road game and Arkansas had the best running back tandem in the country.

There's not a senior in the secondary and two high draft picks in Patrick Lee and Jonathan Wilhite are gone, but Zac Etheridge, Aairon Savage, and Jerraud Powers have had their moments and it looks like another good group. Following the trend of being consistent against the run, only one team threw for over 300 yards on the Tigers last year, and that was LSU who only did so on a last second pass for the win.

The only concern may be adaptibility to new coach Rhodes' defensive scheme, but as mentioned in the open, Tuberville has gone through a number of coaches and they should be fine.

Wes Byrum and Ryan Shoemaker had great freshman seasons kicking and punting respectively, but it would be a nice added bonus if Auburn could find someone to return kicks and give better field position.

Prediction

The SEC West title seems to always run through the Auburn and LSU game, and this year Auburn hosts the 'other' Tigers and have an advantage of seeing a very green LSU QB in only the fourth week of the season. I like them to win that, and they miss Florida from the East in the regular season. They face MSU, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, and Alabama on the road but could be favored in all of those games. I think they'll win the West, and if they can beat West Virginia in Morgantown may very well be in the hunt for the national title. Let's go with 11-3 after a loss to Florida in the SEC title game.