#6: georgia bulldogs

Context

Georgia has been a ten win machine since Mark Richt took over as head coach in 2001, but with a 9-4 season in 2006 including losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky, Urban Meyer resurrecting Florida, and offensive play calling duties being handed over to the young Mike Bobo some wondered if Georgia would fall from their perennial-top-ten perch.

Things didn't look too rosy last year as the Bulldogs lost 16-12 to South Carolina early at home without scoring an offensive touchdown, got blown out by Tennessee, and barely skated past Vandy.

Things changed quickly as Georgia took down Florida for only the second time in the past 10 years with freshman running back Knowshon Moreno having a breakout performance. Richt also used some unconventional motivational techniques in that game and broke out the black uniforms against Auburn and Hawaii which really gave them some TV time and put them in the national spotlight. Whether Tim Tebow having injury problems in that game or the aforementioned tactics had much of an impact is up for debate, but Georgia closed out with 5 straight wins and had many thinking they were one of the best if not the best team at the end of 2007.

Returning starters abound on both sides of the ball and Georgia should at least be in the thick of a tough SEC East race, if not the national title hunt.

Experts

Georgia is ranked #2 in the NCS poll with an average ranking of (2.78). Stewart Mandel of SI, Schlabach of ESPN and Lindy's magazine all have Georgia as the top team in the country. Phil Steele's predictive poll has them finishing #9. Last week I was watching ESPN and analyst Jesse Palmer said that Georgia had 'by far' (as I recall) the best talent in the country. Maybe a former Gator overcompensating? I'll let you be the judge.

My Opinion

I'm expecting more out of Matthew Stafford in his third year as the starting quarterback. He's the type of quarterback that you always hear analysts and scouts alike raving about because of his apparent physical skills, but his numbers have been merely average and he's yet to have thrown for more than 300 yards in any single game, has only has one career contest with 3 touchdown passes, and has only completed over 19 passes in one single game.

Not that statistics are everything, but outside of Moreno's outburst at the end of last year, Georgia hasn't been extremely productive running the ball under Stafford's leadership so I'd expect him to have better overall numbers.

To me, Stafford's play is the wild card and main reason why I'm hesitant to put Georgia among the top couple teams in the country. Almost all of the teams above them almost certainly will have great quarterback play, and the teams that I'm unsure of (Ohio State and USC) have more around their QBs on both sides of the ball to work with than Georgia...all in my opinion, of course. I know Jesse Palmer would disagree! :)

Luckily I was able to catch a fair bit of Georgia's spring game on television and I wouldn't worry about losing running back Thomas Brown if I was a Georgia fan. The senior back was solid, but freshman Caleb King looks like he'll be an ample compliment to one of the nation's best running backs in Knowshon Moreno.

Knowshon could be an All-America team contender as he rushed for 100+ yards in five consecutive games down the stretch and scored 14 touchdowns. Not much else needs to be said - he's a great back that can run between the tackles and also has solid speed.

Also impressive in that spring game was wide receiver Michael Moore, who on a miserable weather day which as a result was short on passing was able to nab 2 touchdown passes. Georgia may need someone like him to step up as they lose their leading receiver in Sean Bailey and big play threat Mikey Henderson. I mentioned Stafford needs to improve but the wide receivers haven't helped much. Mohamed Massaquoi needs to step up as a senior with considerable experience behind him and he has all the tools to do so, but dropped passes have plagued him in his career and he's never been a big time receiver.

Other than Massaquoi, Kris Durham is the second leading returning wide receiver with a modest 11 catches for 169 yards and zero scores. Tripp Chandler is a reliable target at tight end, but he's not much of a downfield threat at 263 pounds and Georgia needs more vertical possibilities so teams don't stack the line to stop Moreno. Who steps up there is anyone's guess, but you'd think Georgia has some talent to burn.

The offensive line was a huge surprise last year as Georgia started 3 freshmen. They allowed only 15 sacks and the running game was as good as its been in a few years with Moreno and Brown having solid campaigns. They lose two senior starters and could conceivably start all freshmen and sophomores in the fall. That could be a concern, but the numbers were great last year and I doubt replacing 2 players will be that much of a hurdle considering Georgia's recruiting efforts.

Senior Brannan Southerland plays fullback (yeah, the position still exists) and seems to garner positive attention from coaches and media alike.

Georgia's offense improved a full touchdown (25.2 to 32.6) from 2006 to 2007 but I feel it's still a year away from being a top flight group. Will it be the team that scored 40+ points in 4 of its last 6 games or the merely good unit it was the majority of the year? I can't hop off the fence, but am leaning towards the latter and think it'll be somewhere in between.

The defense seems to be more of a sure thing. The front seven loses sack leader Marcus Howard, but not much else and linebackers Daniel Ellerbe and Rennie Curran really impressed me last year. That may not be the best duo on the defense though, as 1st team SEC performer Geno Atkins and third year starter and senior Jeff Owens return as one of the better defensive tackle tandems around.

This group was very inexperienced coming into last year and only returned three starters, but they still only allowed 20 points per game and, complementing the strong finish of the offense, didn't allow more than 20 points to any team in their last 4 contests.

One of the big losses coming into last year was expected standout corner Paul Oliver being ruled academically ineligible and he left the team. Asher Allen had a real impressive year to make Bulldog fans forget about him and was surprisingly second on the team in tackles with 64 and had 3 interceptions. In the spring game he had a pretty impressive pick of Stafford. Georgia has tons of depth at corner as Prince Miller, Bryan Evans, and Ramarcus Brown each have at least 6 career starts.

CJ Byrd is one of the few senior starters on the team, and will start for the second straight year at free safety. Likely taking the free safety spot is highly regarded sophomore Reshad Jones who had 57 tackles and 2 interceptions despite only having 2 starts and he played a few different spots in the secondary.

Asher Allen is the only kick returner coming back for 2008, but I'm guessing one of their fine athletes steps in (Caleb King, maybe?). There's a new kicker, but Brian Mimbs returns as punter and Georgia was 14th nationally in net punting last year.

I really like the talent on this team, and despite being critical of their youth, my #2 ranked and fellow SEC East member Florida Gators have Phil Steele's #119 ranked team in terms of experience. Plus, the Bulldogs beat them last year and had a better overall record.

Prediction

Georgia could have the toughest schedule in the country. They have 5 road games along with their annual neutral site fling with Florida, who will be hungry for revenge after last year's blowout. They play Arizona State, LSU, and Auburn on the road (all ranked in my top 15) and their two other road foes are South Carolina, a team they lost to at home last year, and Kentucky, who beat them in Lexington two years ago. The Bulldogs also 'avoid' the Mississippi schools from the West. To me, a 10-2 regular season would be quite a feat, but I'll call for 9-3 and a fight with Tennessee for the second spot in the SEC East. I really feel 2009, if Stafford and Moreno return, could be 'the year' for Georgia.