#5: missouri tigers

Context

Gary Pinkel is safe for now. He had his critics (and still does) after 3 losing seasons in his first 5 years but has really put up solid clubs the last two campaigns. They were pretty inconsistent in 2006, but still won 8 games and by the end of the year were probably a top 25 level team, losing a heart breaker to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

Last year many predicted they would win the Big XII North, and they were one win away from playing for a national title and stormed through most of their schedule, with two especially impressive wins against Colorado (55-10) and Texas Tech (41-10). In my opinion they got snubbed out of a BCS bowl bid, but still finished #4, blowing out Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.

What makes me believe they can sustain that success is having one of the top offenses in the country, an underrated defense with most of the talent from 2007 returning, and a staff with great continuity as offensive and defensive coordinators Dave Christensen and Matt Eberflus have been with Pinkel since he took over in 2001.

Experts

Missouri ranks #6 with an average ranking of (5.44) in the NCS Poll. No one has them higher than #4, and College Football News has them ranked #8 as the lowest of the group.

My Opinion

Anyone who has watched the Tigers in any capacity the past 2 years knows the offense goes as Chase Daniel does. He was the Big XII offensive player of the year in 2007 and is more of a dual threat quarterback than his short and stocky frame suggests. Missouri runs a spread system, having Chase line up further back than most teams do their QBs in the shotgun and the running game is slow developing, but effective. There are lots of pulls by the lineman in the run game, and Mizzou runs some option and most of Daniel's runs seem to be draws in short yardage situations.

Watching Daniel in the pocket kind of reminds me of backyard football, as Mizzou's wide line splits enable him to roam from side to side and he really excels throwing on the run.

Missouri improved from an already solid 30 points per game in 2007 to 39.9 last fall. Lots of that can be attributed to the solid skill players and line returning, but Jeremy Maclin made perhaps the biggest impact of any freshman in the country, kind of functioning as Missouri's version of Percy Harvin.

Maclin caight 80 passes for over 1000 yards and 9 touchdowns, also scoring 4 times on the ground with an average of 7.4 yards per carry. He also handled all the punt and kick returning duties and finished with well over 2500+ all purpose yards. He added 3 touchdowns on those special teams efforts.

Maclin returns and figures to be the primary pass catcher, and Chase Coffman returns as one of the best WR/TE hybrid players in the country. He's a big target at 6-6/245 and Mizzou likes to line him up out wide and strangely (but effectively) uses him in screens in short yardage situations. He has 20 career touchdowns.

Martin Rucker was used similarly to Coffman last year and is probably the biggest loss for the offense, leading the team with 84 catches and notching 8 TDs last year. Will Franklin had a solid senior season with over 700 receiving yards and also departs.

The good thing is that as much as Mizzou throws, they still have a lot of guys coming back who can catch the ball even with the loss of those two. Tommy Saunders has started 30 games in his career and Denario Alexander is a 6-5 target who looks to play a bigger role as a junior. Jared Perry is a fellow junior who has over 500 career receiving yards.

Running back Tony Temple departs and quietly put up two consecutive 1000 yard seasons for the Tigers. He really broke out in the season finale against Arkansas with 281 yards. That was only one of 4 performances all year that he rushed for over 100 yards, so while he was effective, Missouri didn't depend on him to carry the ball more than 15-20 times and Maclin/Daniel were able to move the ball on the ground also.

Jimmy Jackson is the back that returns with the most experience, having over 600 yards coming into his senior season. Derrick Washington is a sophomore who had enough talent that he got 46 touches as a true frosh on a loaded offense and I'm interested to see if he can become a dynamic back. He caught 10 passes last year and scored a TD.

The offensive line returns 3 starters, but loses Big XII offensive lineman of the year, center Adam Spieker and a 3 year starter at tackle in Tyler Luellen. Daniel roams around a lot in the pocket and the center position is very important in the spread, and I mentioned Mizzou likes to pull lineman in the run game. The line may not be as dominant as last year, but with 3 guys returning I feel confident that there won't be much of a drop off.

Missouri led the Big XII in yards allowed per game and sacks in conference games. They also only yielded 22 points per game against conference foes, very impressive in a league that was probably the nation's best offensively having 7 teams that scored at least 34 points per game in league play.

All those numbers aside, with the offensive as powerful as it is, the defense will be the difference between another great or merely good season.

Second team All-American safety William Moore is the best player on the defense and tallied 8 interceptions, 7 tackles for loss, and 117 tackles in 2007. His presence is very important in a pass happy Big XII. He works alongside senior Justin Garrett at strong safety who started 9 games in various secondary roles. Carl Gettis started at corner and earned honorable mention Big XII honors as a true freshman. Pig Brown got hurt after 8 games, so that gave others players like Castine Bridges and Hardy Ricks chances to see more time.

They did give up a lot of yards (3596) in the passing game and allowed opponents to complete 62% of their passes, but they picked off 17 balls and I think they'll be a little better this year.

Sean Witherspoon and Brock Christopher return at linebacker and both had over 100 tackles last year. Van Alexander would be the third returning starter, but his precence in the fall is a bit questionable with him having torn a knee ligament in the spring. Witherspoon also has injury troubles as he underwent the knife with a torn labrum after spring. Hopefully both return healthy, and if they do, this is a more than solid unit. They really aided the defensive line in only allowing 1 opponent all year to rush for over 166 yards. They held Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to 3.3 yards per carry in the bowl game.

The defensive line isn't short on returning starters either, as seniors Stryker Sulak, Ziggy Hood, and Tommy Chavis return with mounds of experience behind them. They do lose 1st team conference tackle Lorenzo Williams, but with that much experience returning the only question to me is if they can find ways to improve the pass rush and try and create more turnovers.

Basically anywhere from 8-10 starters return however you look at it, and as many as 8 starters will be seniors. They don't have the freak athletes that the top defenses in the country boast, but they played with a lot of confidence last year and I expect the good play to carry over this fall.

The amazing Jermey Maclin returns in the kick return game and Jeff Wolfert has made every field goal he has attempted in Big XII play the last two years. One spot Missouri needs to improve on is punting, as they ranked 113th nationally in net punting.

Prediction

Mizzou draws Illinois again in Saint Louis to open the season. I like that game as a tuneup against a could-be top 25 opponent. I'm thinking Missouri takes that one as they jumped out to a 37-10 lead last year before Illinois closed the gap, and the Illini will be without their best player from last year, Rashard Mendenhall. They should start out 4-0 and luckily have a bye before their Big XII opener against Nebrasa in Lincoln, which in my opinion is the key game on their slate. They miss Oklahoma and Texas Tech from the South and I expect them to be favored in all but the Texas game in Austin. Give me another Big XII North title and a chance to redeem themselves for losing to Oklahoma twice last year, which spoiled their national title hopes.