#3: ohio state buckeyes

Context

Much has been said about Ohio State's recent 9 game skid against the SEC and the last two BCS championship games, so I won't bore you with too much of my own spin. I'm sure we've all memorized the standard lines and recycled arguments like the latest annoying top 40 song that you try so hard not to, but can't help but let sink it. Let's agree it got old a long time ago, no matter if the angst was pro or anti-Buckeye.

What I will say is that Ohio State is easily one of the top programs in the country, appearing in BCS games 5 of the last 6 years and going 3-2 in those contests with one MNC to their credit. Recently they've tightened their already strong grip on the Big Ten with 3 straight conference championships. Only 2 conference foes have scored more than 20 points on the Buckeyes in any single game the past two years, and they've held opponents to a touchdown or less an amazing 8 times in that span.

The Buckeyes seem primed for at least another BCS bid and Big Ten title and are in the running for another national crown. You wouldn't think a team that appeared in two straight national title games would be hungry for respect on a national level, but the Buckeyes can do a lot to mend their image this year, starting with an early road trip to the Coliseum to take on Southern California in what will surely be one of the most highly anticipated and important games of the year. But even if they don't, you need not feel sorry for them as 115+ programs would love to be in their shoes.

Experts

The Bucks are ranked #1 in the NCS poll with an average ranking of (2.00). Three of the 9 rankings included have tOSU as the top ranked team in the land, and they are no lower than #3 on any list.

My Opinion

In the open I mentioned Ohio State's prowess against in-conference foes, especially in terms of dominating games on the defensive side of the ball. There's no doubt that unit will be legit and one of the best nationally this year, as 9 starters return from a group that allowed only 12.8 points per game last year (led the country).

The only significant losses are linebacker Larry Grant and sack machine (14) Vernon Gholston. Ohio State should have no problem replacing those two as multi-award winner James Laurinaitus enters his third straight year of starting at middle linebacker with a plethora of big time recruits and proven guys around him.

The run defense was extremely good last year, and only allowed over 100 yards only 4 times. It should be noted that 3 of those were against teams that had mobile quarterbacks. Washington's Jake Locker led his Washington team to 142 yards on 34 carries, Illinois carved the Buckeye defense for 260 yards on the ground, and LSU was successful with their talented backfield and picked up a solid 152 yards. I realize Washington and LSU didn't but up big numbers, but compare it to Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern, and Akron who ran for a combined 34 net yards against the Buckeyes and I think the difference is notable.

They face Juice Williams and Illinois again this year, and by the time they take on Michigan at season's end you'd guess Rich Rodriguez has the Wolverines settled in a little bit on the offensive side of the ball with their new spread system and he finds a QB. Penn State will surely put out a QB quicker than Anthony Morelli, whether it be Daryll Clark or Pat Devlin. And the last time they beat the Buckeyes was with an agile Michael Robinson.

I don't want to blow the dual-threat quarterback situation out of proportion, but I don't think it's any coincidence that Ohio State's last 3 losses have been against teams that run spread systems and have guys who can truck it under center. Again, as with the running statistics, the difference between the amount of points scored against them in those games compared with the complete shutdown of Big Ten and lesser out of conference foes is pretty staggering. The Big Ten has some teams that run the spread, but other than Illinois, not with the talent teams like LSU and Florida do - Purdue and Northwestern, for example. It will be interesting to see what kind of approach the Wolverines and Nittany Lions take against the Buckeyes this year.

That critique is nit-picky at best. It's hard when you play teams the caliber of Florida and LSU, but I think there's definitely room for improvement. Simply, Ohio State should again destroy the weakling-to-average offenses on their schedule and allow their offense to simply milk the clock in most contests.

The other side of the ball doesn't have many questions either, but if the Buckeyes plan to march into Los Angeles and take down USC and roll through the Big Ten I think at least one thing has to be addressed - ball distribution.

There's little question to me who the best running back in the country is, and Ohio State has him in Chris Wells. He's just a beast. As good a combination of speed and size as there's been recently and he carried the offense through most of last season. I don't think any individual performance was more gritty than his 222 yard outing against Michigan last year. If his ankle that gave him 'problems' in '07 and the rest of his body hold up, there isn't much stopping him and he'll contend for all honors available for a running back.

Todd Boeckman returns for his second year as starting QB and he had a solid first fall. None of the backups really got much action and he only threw for 2379 yards and no more than 253 in any game, but he was pretty consistent and you have to consider he had one of the best players in the country to hand off to in games that the results of are rarely in question.

Like the defense, not many new faces here as zero significant skill players depart and only tackle Kirk Barton is gone from the offensive line. The depth is always solid on Jim Tressels' lines, and you can bet they find someone to fill Kirk's role. That line only allowed 19 sacks last year, but again they struggled in the title game allowing 5 sacks, 3 more than they did in any other game. Two years in a row they probably faced the best defensive line in the country, but the performances should have been better.

Speaking of a pass rush, I've always wondered why Tressel has never gone out of his way to get a tight end more involved in the offense. Probably why I'm not a college coach, but you'd think with the kind of athletes they can attract and the pounding running game they have they'd get a guy to run down the seam and catch some passes off some nice play action.

Seems Ohio State prefers big guys who can do a bunch of the blocking, instead. Rory Nichol has started 20+ games at tight end for the Buckeyes and the 250+ pounder figures to pile up more starts this year. He had 259 career receiving yards to his credit. Jake Ballard is another big guy that saw time and caught 2 TD passes last season.

Brandon Saine played a little HB/TE role early in the national title game and was able to snag a big catch early and do some things. He looks like a good one and I think he can really be utilized more in the offense. He had 12 catches on the year and also had 60 carries from the running back position. Maurice Wells returns and ate up 103 carries last year, but I expect Saine to see more of the field this year, and hopefully in a couple different roles as he seems like he could be a dynamic dual-threat player.

Whether it's getting a tight end open in space or getting Saine more touches, Ohio State's offense would probably be better served finding some more options on the outside. I felt Brian Robiskie was underrated nationally last year as a pass catcher and finished with near 1000 yards on 55 catches and had 11 touchdowns. Brian Hartline was also solid with 52 catches but no other Buckeye had more than 20 catches on the year. When you look at it, Ohio State had probably only had 3 viable, consistent options defenses had to prepare for each week as Robiskie, Hartline, and Wells accounted for 381 touches on the year.

It was almost the same story in 2007 out wide as both Ted Ginn, Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez had over 50 catches but no one else was near as consistent. The offense will improve this year, but if the Buckeyes want to be among the elite they're going to have to find a few more guys to take roles among the pass catchers.

Terrelle Pryor was the most sought-after recruit in the country and I figure he'll see action as a true freshman at the QB position. The last two national championsip teams used running QBs, and college football is a copycat sport. I say the less concentrated the offensive attack is this year, the better.

No question the offense will be formidable once again this year, but not one of the top 10-15 in the country.

The Buckeyes need not worry about the special teams as both kickers return along with the kick returners. Most people, I trust, have heard of Tressel ball and they'll win plenty of games with special teams and defense this year.

Prediction

Obviously USC is my #1 team, so I half-expect the Buckeyes to drop their early tussle with them. Even if they don't get through that game unscathed, they could easily run the table as their Big Ten schedule is manageable with their presumably stronger opponents well spread out. The question is, after the last two years, if they can afford to be in the BCS chase with a loss to their name with the pollsters probaby a bit hesitant to pull the trigger. I'll call for a Big Ten title, 2 regular season losses, and a BCS win.