#2: florida gators

Context

Coming off a national championship season, Florida returned just 2 starters from a defense that allowed only 13.5 points in 2006, so naturally there was a drop off. An amazing 6 true freshman defensive players (by my count) saw significant time in 2007 against an SEC conference, one that usually prides itself on defense, that was probably as strong offensively as it has been in the 2000s. Florida allowed 12 more points a game than they did in 2006.

More of a surprise was an offense that picked up that slack and scored 13 more points per game than in did in 2006 as Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin totally took over and had monster seasons.

I'm of the opinion that the USC and Texas offenses showcased in the 2005 BCS title game were by far the two best in the modern era. I truthfully think that Florida, if a running back can emerge, can be on that level. With Tebow at the helm they improved by 13 points per game, and at 42.5 per, it's 'only' a touchdown lower than USC's 49 a game and Texas' 50 in 2005.

The scary thing is that Florida's 4 losses last year were more than Urban Meyer had suffered as a head coach at any D1-A program and they still had a very good season, finishing #13 in the AP poll.

I'll take Florida's offense as easily one of the best in the country coming into the season and think the defense will improve, if not dramatically, enough for them to get to the BCS title game. It says a lot about Meyer and his coaching staff that they probably went from having the best defense in the country in 2006 to having one of the best offenses in 2007.

Experts

Florida is pegged #5 with an average ranking of (4.78) in the NCS poll. Athlon and Phil Steele have them as the #1 team heading into the season, while Stewart Mandel (CNNSI) and Mark Schlabach (ESPN) both have them the lowest at #7.

My Opinion

Lost in the whole Tim Tebow hype was the performance of Percy Harvin last year, who probably should have got more recognition nationally. He's probably the best all purpose player in the country and rushed for 764 yards on an awesome 9.2 per carry and caught 59 balls for 858 yards. He had 10 total touchdowns.

So Florida right off the bat probably has 2 of the top offensive players in the country and they aren't short on talent anywhere else.

The big question from the media, as it has been since Meyer's arrival, is if anyone will be able to run the ball consistently to take pressure off the QB. I already mentioned Harvin's numbers running, but Kesthan Moore was the second leading rusher with 580 yards (5.6 YPC).

Many seem to be expecting USC transfer Emmanuel Moody to step in and do wonders, but if history is any indication, Tebow will still get well over 100 carries, and Florida will run by committee.

Here are some numbers for individual, leading running backs under the wings of Meyer and OC Dan Mullen.

2007: Kestahn Moore - 580 Yards - 6 TD
2006: DeShawn Wynn - 699 Yards - 6 TD
2005: DeShawn Wynn - 621 Yards - 7 TD
2004 (Utah): Marty Johnson - 802 Yards - 14 TD (AND) Quinton Ganther - 654 Yards - 2 TD
2003 (Utah): Brandon Warfield - 976 Yards - 11 TD
2002 (Bowling Green): Joe Alls - 801 Yards - 4 TD (AND) PJ Pope - 577 Yards - 4 TD
2001 (Bowling Green): Joe Alls - 553 Yards - 3 TD (AND) John Gibson - 444 Yards - 3 TD

Amazingly there isn't a 1000 yard back in the bunch, and outside of Brandon Warfield, no one has really come close. I doubt 90% of college football fans could even name Florida's starting running backs the last few years and none of those guys is making headlines in the pros.

So it's more likely that the running stats for backs being so low is more a function of design than anything else - especially with the rate of which Meyer's offenses piled up points in that span.

But that's not to say Florida's running game shouldn't be a lot better this year. I already mentioned Moody, but freshman Chris Rainey looked very good (and fast) in the spring game and I expect him to see a lot of touches. Mon Williams, who tore his ACL last year, is another guy that could see carries.

Obviously in the spring game Meyer wasn't going to let Tebow run free, but Moody had 111 rushing yards in that game and Rainey added 76.

To me, as long as Tebow doesn't have to run it 210 times again, it's not a worry spot even if Moody and/or Rainey underachieves.

If you combine Tim Tebow and Alex Smith's numbers in their best years they had a 64-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio, well over 6000 yards passing, and completed 67% of their passes. The passing game was a question before last year, just because Tebow hadn't seen much action, but all that can be said is the entire receiving corps, minus Andre Caldwell and little used Jarred Fayson, returns and it should be another awesome group for the Gators.

I love the mix of speed and size out wide. Cornelius Ingram is listed as a tight end but he's 6-4 and pretty light on his feet, fellow TE Aaron Hernandez is 6-3, Riley Cooper is 6-3, and JC transfer Carl Moore is 6-4. Louis Murphy and Percy Harvin are both around 6 foot (generous for Harvin) and are extremely fast.

I can't think of a team nationally that comes close to Florida as far as balance at the skill positions is concerned, and it doesn't hurt that Harvin can run or catch and Tebow showed he can carry the load on the ground with over 1000 yards rushing and 23 TDs last year. It will take a lot to slow them down.

So what about the offensive line? I won't pretend I know much except that one stat jumped out to me more than any other - Florida had 7 games where they didn't allow a sack, and didn't allow more than 2 in any single game with the exception of??? Georgia, where they allowed 6 and were playing with an injured Tebow against a Bulldog team fresh off a bye.

There are enough starters coming back from last year, 3, that I feel confident it shouldn't be a worry spot. Also the Gators get back Phil Trautwein, who was an all-conference player at tackle in 2007 and was injured last year. Three of the projected starters are seniors.

So this is the SEC...we must at least attempt to discuss defense.

I'm going to be completely honest - the pass defense was all kinds of horrible last season. It was a group that had a lot of freshman that started games, and they are talented guys, but I think the learning curve for an NCAA corner is a lot higher than most positions. New stuff - looks like safeties Dorian Munroe and John Curtis will be out for the year.

If you watched Florida last year it's probably your biggest concern about the Gators this year. One reason I feel a lot better about their chances to stop people this year are...

1. Like I said, the learning curve is steep and one year of experience can do a lot in college.
2. They won't be facing seniors in Erik Ainge, Andre Woodson, Chad Henne, and (*cringe) Blake Mitchell that know how to pick apart inferior defenses.
3. They just can't be worse!

I really like the looks of the front seven, even with losing top defensive end Derrick Harvey. The Gators return all 3 of their starting linebackers and they helped Florida hold every opponent but two (LSU and Georgia) under 100 net yards rushing. That's a pretty impressive stat to me, even considering that teams could throw at will against the Gators.

Brandon James is an electric kick returner and he's back, and Florida has more talent than just about anyone so they should be fine on special teams.

Prediction

I think any more than 2 losses would be a pretty big disappointment. As long as they don't trip up against Miami early, I think the schedule sets up very nice. Their only west foe on the road is Arkansas, and they get them early before Petrino gets that offense rolling. Florida traditionally owns Tennessee and smacked them around last year, and again, gets the benefit of catching a team with a new offensive coordinator and QB early.

The other remaining road games are against a Vanderbilt team who should be down, even by their standards, this year and another presumably not scary Florida State team. The Gators don't even have to face Auburn or Alabama from the west and should mop the floor at home with maybe the exception of the LSU game.

I expect at least a BCS bowl, and think the schedule sets up quite nice for another title run.